The hottest rebar inventory has reached a new high

2022-08-14
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Rebar inventory hit a new high "long material is weak and plate is strong" or continued

February has entered the latter half of the year, but in order to achieve comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development, the overall demand of the national market is still depressed. Under the influence of the continuous record high inventory and the diametrically opposite policies of long material and plate steel mills, the price of long material is difficult to find the bottom, the decline of plate is slowly slowing down, and the polarization of long plate is intensifying. According to this, some analysts believe that the "plate is stronger than long material" in 2012 may be initially determined and will continue in the later stage

rebar inventory hit a new high

according to the latest social inventory data released by "my steel", as of February 17, 2012, the social inventory of five major steel varieties (rebar, wire rod, hot rolled coil, cold rolled coil and medium and heavy plate) in 26 major markets in China was 18.9987 million tons, and the inventory rose for the eighth consecutive week. The total steel inventory reached 19million tons for the first time, the highest level since "my steel" had inventory statistics. The previous record high was 1890 tons at the beginning of March last year, which could delay the spread of the fire even if it caught fire

among them, the total inventory of rebar in China reached 8.495 million tons, a record high. Survey statistics show that the current total inventory of rebar and wire rod is 10.9986 million tons: the inventory of rebar in major cities across the country is 8.4951 million tons, an increase of 27.57%, and the inventory of wire rod in major cities across the country is 2.535 million tons, an increase of 40.84%

at the same time, last week, domestic steel prices continued the previous decline, especially construction steel. Last week, the secondary rebar in Shanghai market fell below 4000 yuan/ton

the performance of hot-rolled plates is different from that of wire rods represented by deformed steel bars. Its inventory growth is relatively limited, and its product prices are relatively strong. In terms of plate varieties last week, the inventory of medium and heavy plates decreased by 47000 tons, the increment of hot-rolled coil inventory decreased significantly, increased by 39000 tons compared with the previous week, and the increment of cold-rolled coil increased by 30000 tons compared with the previous week. "

therefore, market participants should tighten in time; It is predicted that with the obvious decline of the proportion of infrastructure and real estate investment in the total investment, the previous pattern of "strong long materials and weak plates" in the domestic steel market will be broken, and the current pattern of "stronger plates than long materials" will initially be determined and may continue in the later stage

in addition, the change of this pattern may be seen from the price adjustment policies of major steel mills

On February 10, Baosteel, the "weathervane" of domestic steel mills, issued a price policy in March, in which Baosteel leveled off the wide and thick plates and comprehensively increased the price of other varieties by yuan/ton. On February 13, Shougang, WISCO and other sheet steel mills announced the ex factory price policy for March. Among them, Shougang raised the ex factory price of hot rolling by 100 yuan/ton in March (including 50 yuan/ton for transportation and compensation in North China); Level the cold rolling and galvanizing; Increase 50 yuan/ton for the middle plate. On the same day, Wuhan Iron and steel group reported the level of tinned and rolled plates (medium and heavy plates); Increase 100 yuan/ton for hot rolling and color coating; Increase the price of cold rolling by 150 yuan/ton; Increase galvanizing by 50 yuan/ton; Increase pickling by 200 yuan/ton

contrary to the price adjustment policy of plate steel mills, the long-term steel mills dominated by Shagang have significantly reduced the ex factory price. On February 11, Shagang, the largest private steel mill in China, lowered its ex factory price of building materials in mid February. Among them, Shagang reduced the price of rebar by 100 yuan/ton, high-speed wire by 150 yuan/ton, and spiral rod by 200 yuan/ton. On the 11th day, Yonggang and Zhongtian also lowered the ex factory price of building materials in mid February of deformed steel bars, high-speed wire rods and spiral rods, ranging from yuan/ton, which is almost the same as that of Shagang

market participants believe that Baosteel and other sheet steel mills have relatively good order organization, long export situation and optimistic material, and the possibility of sharp decline in the later stage is not high. Steel mills that produce long products are less optimistic - they have to continue to make profits in order to win orders and market

the darkness before dawn

after the Spring Festival, the previously expected centralized replenishment of inventory by middlemen and the preparation of raw materials for production by downstream terminals ended in disappointment. The steel price did not enter the rising channel as scheduled, but continued the weak adjustment trend before the festival. It seems that the bottom of the steel price determined by most people in the industry has loosened again

as the steel mills concentrated on delivering goods to the agent market after the Spring Festival transportation, the market inventory rose passively. According to the feedback of some traders, at present, "rebar is everywhere. It is said that some steel mills such as SHENTE are now looking for warehouses all over the world to release goods"

relatively speaking, the inventory of plate is low. Some market participants pointed out that nearly 60% of the country's production capacity is concentrated in construction steel, and the production capacity of plate is relatively low, so that there is no excessive pressure on the plate inventory for the time being, and the commencement of its downstream industries will not be affected by the weather too much. Although the commencement is poor, the demand is slowly recovering, and the price of this kind of steel is relatively stable

if the plate can strengthen in the later stage, will it be able to drive the whole steel price up? Analysts pointed out that this possibility is low. This is because of the application, status and limitations of different varieties of steel: construction steel, which accounts for more than 60% of the output, is the main force that can drive the whole steel market to follow suit. The person further boldly predicted: "under such circumstances, if there is no major positive news before the peak season of the second quarter, the steel price this spring may be in danger of collapse again due to the continuous decline of construction steel, and the market needs to be cautious."

Mr. Zhang, a steel trader, said that recently he and his friends have chosen to wait and see and continue to wait for the opportunity. "Now is the dark period before dawn, and this is also an opportunity to test the strength of the enterprise. The most important thing is to preserve the strength and survive."

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