The hottest rebalancing of China's photovoltaic in

2022-08-15
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The "rebalancing" of China's photovoltaic industry in 2013 is coming to an end, which is a milestone year for China's photovoltaic industry. Let's turn the clock back to a year ago. At that time, all the nine photovoltaic companies listed abroad suffered losses, with a total loss of hundreds of millions of dollars. In addition, Daquan new energy, Suntech, Jingao and Savi, four U.S. listed photovoltaic leaders, were warned of delisting

as of the third quarter of this year, the operation of zhonggai photovoltaic enterprises listed in the United States has stabilized and improved, the loss margin has narrowed significantly year-on-year, and Jingke energy has achieved its first profit since the third quarter of 2011; Yingli Green energy is also coming out of the cold winter. The company's revenue in the third quarter was $596 million, an increase of 68% year-on-year. Although it did not achieve profit, the net loss for the quarter has narrowed significantly to $38.5 million from $162 million in the same period last year; Atlas achieved its first quarterly profit in two years in the third quarter. At the same time, the shipment volume of many companies increased significantly. Trinasolar also expects to turn losses into profits in the fourth quarter

most of the domestic listed photovoltaic companies also achieved performance growth. Aerospace electromechanical achieved a net profit of 200million yuan in the first three quarters, and Hairun photovoltaic lost 221million yuan in the first three quarters. However, it achieved a net profit of 34million yuan in the third quarter, and Dongfang Risheng also turned losses into profits, with a profit of 50million yuan in the first three quarters

these transitions are described by one of the most fashionable words at present: "rebalancing", the rebalancing of supply and demand, the rebalancing of the international market, and the rebalancing of the domestic market

let's start with the rebalancing of supply and demand. In 2012, the global demand for photovoltaic modules was only about 30GW, while the global photovoltaic module capacity was 80gw that year, half of which was located in China. Such an exaggerated imbalance between supply and demand will inevitably lead to a serious decline in the price of the whole industry chain and corporate profits. Due to the weak brand and strong substitutability shared by the semiconductor industry, price war has become the only choice for most enterprises to face limited market demand

the fierce price war forced enterprises to reduce costs in various ways. The cost of photovoltaic modules in 2013 was reduced by about 20% compared with that in 2012, while those photovoltaic enterprises that could not adapt to the competition could only choose to change careers or go bankrupt. Wuxi Suntech should be the most famous bankruptcy case this year

the bankruptcy of Suntech was accompanied by the withdrawal of several GW of component capacity. It is not only Suntech that withdrew. According to statistics, this year, the national photovoltaic cell and module manufacturers have decreased by a quarter compared with last year, and the actual production capacity of global modules has also decreased compared with last year. According to statistics, the current global module production capacity is about 65gw. At the same time, the global demand for components increased by 30% from 30GW last year to about 40gw. The ebb and flow of supply and demand makes it possible for domestic photovoltaic enterprises that are still alive to obtain a good annual report this year

like other construction companies, they are also opening up this market in third tier cities and other regions to talk about the rebalancing of the international market. Before 2011, China's domestic consumption of photovoltaic modules accounted for only about 10% of the national output, about 90% of photovoltaic products were exported, and mainly concentrated in the European and American markets, of which the American market was close to 15%, the European Union market was more than 70%, and Asia, Africa and Oceania together accounted for only about 10% of the export share

such a single export structure will inevitably bring great market risks. Once the European market moves, the entire Chinese photovoltaic industry will be frustrated. In 2012, the nightmare became a reality, and the photovoltaic double reverse of the United States and the European Union almost followed one after another. China's photovoltaic industry was suddenly shaken, and the characteristics of reducing or even eliminating the protection demand of FRP bridges were improving the attractiveness of composite materials. Even though the price agreement was finally reached with the European Union after trade negotiations this year, the heavy setback of European and American trade protection on China's photovoltaic industry was also obvious

from January to September this year, China's share of photovoltaic products exported to the European Union and the United States fell to about 40%. However, at the same time, China's exports to emerging photovoltaic markets such as Japan, India and South Africa continued to grow, rising to more than 50%. Among them, Japan has become the second largest exporter of photovoltaic products in China with a proportion of more than 20%. In addition, the domestic market also broke out with the release of the "eight national policies" in July. It is expected that the domestic installed capacity will reach 9-10gw this year, about twice that of last year. Therefore, although the export value of China's photovoltaic products decreased by 25% in 2013, the rapid growth of photovoltaic products exported to emerging markets such as the Asia Pacific, coupled with the rapid development of the domestic market, China's photovoltaic industry finally got rid of the relatively single demand pattern, and the rebalancing of the international market greatly reduced the market risks faced by Chinese photovoltaic enterprises. Since then, Any policy change or demand reduction in any country or region will no longer have a disruptive impact on China's photovoltaic industry

finally, let's talk about the rebalancing of the domestic market. This year's photovoltaic industry has a part that cannot be ignored, that is, distributed photovoltaic power generation. Since the national development and Reform Commission issued the Interim Measures for the management of distributed power generation in July, a series of implementation policies favorable for distributed power generation have been introduced one after another, and the domestic distributed market has fully enjoyed the treatment of "beloved"

but before that, due to policy imbalances, cumbersome procedures and financing difficulties, distributed PV was in a very embarrassing situation in China, which could only be called "good or bad". By the end of 2012, distributed PV accounted for less than 20% of the total domestic installed capacity. However, in the world, the distribution of self use and residual power is the mainstream. According to statistics, the total installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic in the United States is more than 80%, that in Germany is more than 85%, and that in Japan is more than 90%

according to the letter on soliciting the construction scale of photovoltaic power generation in 2013 and 2014 issued by the energy administration at the end of October, China will build a total of 12gw of photovoltaic power generation projects next year, of which 8GW are distributed and 4gw are ground power stations. Therefore, even according to the minimum standard, the domestic distributed photovoltaic installation will have 40% development space. The rise of distributed photovoltaic is not only a change in the installation mode, but also a revolution in the whole business model for China's photovoltaic market. Great changes will take place in the financing channels, construction modes, operation and maintenance modes and power station transactions of power stations. The distributed development mode is more similar to commercial real estate, which is a transformation opportunity for domestic photovoltaic enterprises, but also puts forward higher requirements for the ability of enterprises, Photovoltaic enterprises in the future will not only be manufacturing enterprises

looking back on the past is for 4. High heat resistance. Looking forward to the future, the photovoltaic industry has gradually recovered its balance after the trough of the last three years. Although the adjustment will continue and enterprises will continue to be out, some investors with a keen sense of smell have begun to actively layout in the photovoltaic industry

finally, let me remind you that the best time for investment is not when the industry soars, but when the deep consolidation of the industry is close to the end. For photovoltaic, 2014 will be an opportunity. Zhonghua glass () Department

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