The hottest rebound in external demand has not yet

2022-08-17
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The rebound in external demand has not yet occurred, and exports have suffered another heavy fall in May.

the rebound in external demand has not yet occurred. Exports have suffered another heavy fall in May.

China Construction machinery information

Guide: the data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 11th showed that the European and American economies are still at a low ebb, leading to the continued sharp decline in China's exports in May. While domestic investment has maintained a year-on-year growth rate of more than 30% and consumption has increased steadily in the first five months, Exports are still dragging down China's overall economic recovery. Since March, just hold the other end of the sample

data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 11th showed that the European and American economies were still at a low ebb, leading to a sharp decline in China's exports in May. While domestic investment maintained a year-on-year growth rate of more than 30% and consumption increased steadily in the first five months, exports were still "dragging down" China's overall economic recovery

since March, although the year-on-year decline in the value of exports in a single month has deepened, there has been a momentum of continuous month on month growth. The industry believes that the month on month growth for three consecutive months shows that the export situation has begun to stabilize, and it is expected that exports are expected to show a trend improvement after June

exports deteriorated year-on-year and improved slightly month on month

according to China's customs data, the total value of China's imports and exports in May was $164.127 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 25.9%, and the cumulative year-on-year decline was 1.5 percentage points deeper than the previous four months. The year-on-year decline of imports and exports both expanded, of which the decline of exports was deepened by 5.9 percentage points

the decline of the Baltic dry bulk index (BDI), a leading indicator of Global trade, also provided guidance for the direction of China's commodity trade in advance. After more than a month of rising, the BDI index closed at 3452 points on Wednesday, down 66 points

"the above data shows that external demand has not yet improved. Although some indicators of the world economy show positive signals, the overall economy is still in the process of shock bottoming." Liunenghua, a researcher from the research department of the Bank of communications, believes that the import of China's major overseas trading partners has not significantly improved. The United Nations recently lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2009 from -0.5% at the beginning of the year to -2.6%

According to the analysis of Ha Jiming, chief economist of CICC, from the perspective of products, the export of high value-added products continued to decline, of which the export of mechanical and electrical products, which accounted for about 60% of China's exports, fell by 24.3%, which was higher than that of labor-intensive low-end products. The export of clothing, footwear and furniture fell by 13.7%, 8.3% and 5.1% year-on-year respectively; From the perspective of export orders, the number of long-term orders fell, while short-term orders increased; "In May, the year-on-year decline in port container throughput narrowed to -8.6%, but it did not reflect the improvement in the export situation, because at present, a considerable number of containers are not fully loaded, and at the same time, the unit value of exports is declining."

China continues to import a large number of bulk commodities

China continued to import a large number of bulk commodities in May: copper imports hit a new high for the fourth consecutive month in May; Crude oil imports hit the second highest level in history, and the increase in imports has raised domestic crude oil inventories to the highest level since January 2008; Iron ore imports remained high after hitting a record high in April. China previously mainly exported aluminum, lead and zinc by a large amount, but in recent months, it has changed to import by a large amount

According to the analysis, except for the seasonal recovery of copper consumption from April to may, the market demand for non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, lead and zinc is not high. In addition to the drive of a series of economic regulation policies being implemented in China, domestic collection and storage have become an important factor

"in the past few months, international raw materials are really the necessary choices of the upper class society. The price of materials is cheaper than that of domestic materials, and the import substitution is more obvious." Nie Wen, a macro analyst at Huabao trust, told the media that in addition to the consumption demand of the real economy, energy and metals have a good value preservation function. Today, with global excess liquidity, many enterprises and investors choose to buy energy and metal products to avoid inflation risks

some analysts believe that "the sharp increase in imports is indicating that China's economy has obvious signs of recovery". Experts remind that with the increase of inventories, it remains to be seen whether the large amount of imports in the later stage can continue. "In terms of import, if the rapid growth of domestic consumption can be maintained, a large amount of production capacity accumulated in the early stage can be digested, and the importer can continue to get out of the trough." Liu Nenghua said

exports are expected to show a trend improvement in the second half of the year

the Customs said that after seasonal adjustment, exports and imports increased by 0.2% and 4.4% month on month respectively in May. This has produced three new types of inorganic modified polyurethane high molecular new materials, FRP ⑴, FRP ⑵ and FRP ⑶. Since March this year, exports have increased month on month for three consecutive months. "This shows that the export situation has begun to stabilize, and we expect exports to show a trend improvement after June." Ha Jiming believed that the decline of OECD comprehensive leading indicators narrowed, and the PMI indexes of various countries also rebounded, indicating that the economic recession in overseas markets is further slowing down

domestically, the new export order index of China's PMI index in May has risen to the expansion range. The PMI export index in May was 50.10, which was the first time in 10 months to stand above the critical value. Orders in clothing, furniture, electronics and communication equipment industries rebounded significantly. The government will raise the export tax rebate rate of some commodities from June 1, covering 2600 tax items in the manufacturing fields such as deep processing of agricultural products, electromechanical products, shoes and hats, glass products, steel products and so on. This is the seventh consecutive increase in the export tax rebate rate since last August

although China's export is declining, its market share is rising. "In the first quarter, China's total foreign trade fell by 24.9%, lower than the global decline of 40%, reflecting the increasing share of Chinese products in the international market," Liu said

from January to February 2009, the effective exchange rate of RMB continued to rise last year, which inhibited exports, which were also difficult to determine. Since March, the RMB has declined relative to other major currencies except the US dollar, with a decrease of 21.97% against the Korean won and 11.59% against the euro. Considering the lag of the impact of exchange rate on exports, the industry is expected to start to have a positive effect on exports in the second half of the year

analysts at Guosen Securities pointed out that half of China's exports are processing exports, and the import of processing trade has a two month leading effect compared with the export. Therefore, the import data can be used as a leading indicator. Generally, the import should rise to about 10%, and the decline of export can be zero. "The slowdown in the decline in imports of processing with supplied materials shows that export pressure is decreasing in the future." Ha Jiming said

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