The hottest rebar fell sharply in a row, and the m

2022-08-21
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Rebar fell sharply in a row, and the market expectation is that the pointer moves too slowly. There are three situations: pessimistic

Abstract: Recently, rebar fell sharply in a row. The main 1710 contract fell from 3435 yuan/ton on March 17 to 3057 yuan/ton at the close of yesterday, with a cumulative decline of 378 yuan/ton, or 11.00%. At present, the market is pessimistic about the expectations for the second half of the year: on the one hand, the regulation of the real estate market continues to increase, which may have a negative impact on the follow-up real estate investment and the construction of new houses; On the other hand, the market liquidity continued to be tight at the end of March, and the pressure on the capital side had a certain impact on the entire commodity market

recently, rebar has fallen sharply in a row. The main 1710 contract fell from 3435 yuan/ton on March 17. The moisture in the air penetrated into the interior of the material or formed a water film on the plastic surface to 3057 yuan/ton at yesterday's close, with a cumulative decline of 378 yuan/ton, or 11.00%. At present, the market is pessimistic about the expectations for the second half of the year: on the one hand, the regulation of the real estate market continues to increase, which may have a negative impact on the follow-up real estate investment and the construction of new houses; On the other hand, the market liquidity continued to be tight at the end of March, and the pressure on the capital side had a certain impact on the entire commodity market

while stabilizing its position in the electronic and electrical industry,

the pressure on capital at the end of the month increased sharply

when the end of March, the bank's quarter end assessment was approaching, and the central bank introduced MPa assessment, which was more stringent than in the past, in order to guide financial institutions to reduce leverage and prevent financial risks. At the same time, the central bank reduced or even suspended daily open market operations, and short-term liquidity remained tight. Last week, the Shibor lending rate rose in an all-round way, and the one-week lending rate once exceeded 2.80%, which triggered concerns about tight liquidity in the market and also had a negative impact on the commodity market

skin sensitization and intradermal reactivity) make tritan MXF 121 material suitable for use as an external component of small handheld medical equipment and diagnostic equipment

at the Boao Forum last weekend, central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan made a speech, saying that "this round of monetary easing cycle is approaching the end" "don't rely too much on monetary policy", sending a clear signal that there is no room for further easing of monetary policy in the future, It also verifies the general expectation of the market before

real estate regulation continues to upgrade

this round of real estate regulation took place after the two sessions of the National People's Congress. The policy implication is stronger, and the regulation covers a wider range and is stronger than that in September last year. In particular, this regulation has been joined by many third and fourth tier cities. Beijing has issued nine policies in a row in 10 days, including the proportion of down payment, loan interest rate, tax standards for non Beijing home purchases, aisle school district housing, degree division, etc., coupled with strict surprise inspections, the real estate transactions in many places have cooled significantly, basically curbing the momentum of the rapid rise in house prices

the market is worried that strict regulation may lead to a decline in the willingness of real estate developers to invest and acquire land in the future, but it is too early to draw a conclusion at present. On the one hand, the real estate construction cycle is long, and it takes a certain time for sales to transmit to investment and new housing construction; On the other hand, "increasing land supply in the future" is implemented as a means of regulation and control in many places. Therefore, from the sales decline caused by the current purchase restriction, it is inferred that the reduction of investment in new housing in the future is a little hasty

too high discount or limit downside space

after continuous decline, the current rebar 1710 contract discount is more than 600 yuan/ton compared with the spot discount, setting a new record again. Such a large discount significantly reduces the safety margin of short selling. Last week's sharp decline in the market led to a change in downstream mentality, increased wait-and-see sentiment, poor spot transactions, and a certain degree of decline. But at present, after all, it is in the peak season. Once the terminal demand improves and the spot price stabilizes, rebar futures will have a discount repair market

to sum up, we believe that the shortage of funds is a short-term interference factor, which has been alleviated at present, and there is no conclusive evidence that the real estate regulation will lead to the weakening of downstream demand. The short-term continuous slump is more the catharsis of market sentiment. The far month discount has been more than 600 yuan/ton, and the discount range is great. At present, after all, it is in the peak season. Once the spot demand recovers, the price stabilizes and rebounds, or a new round of repair discount market of futures may be triggered

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