The rebound is blocked, and the weak rubber price is difficult to change.
from June 27 to August 19, the main 811 contract of Shanghai Rubber fell from 28590 yuan/ton to a low of 21450 yuan/ton in more than three months. After that, the futures price has been showing an oscillatory rebound trend, but in the line of 23500 yuan/ton, the rebound momentum of rubber price has been significantly curbed. At present, although the unstable political situation in Thailand still causes the market to worry about supply problems, the sharp decline in international oil prices and the weakening of the global economy will still weaken the rubber price. At the same time, although the 809 contract in recent months is still valid, standing above 27000 yuan/ton, and the spot price is strong due to the reluctance of rubber farmers and traders to sell, the pressure faced by rubber prices is gradually emerging as the delivery date approaches due to the lack of coordination of trading volume
seasonal supply continues to increase, and the price of imported rubber continues to decline
from the supply situation of the spot rubber market, the supply in the past August has not been smooth, and the Southeast Asian production areas have experienced frequent rainfall, especially affecting the main production areas in southern Thailand and Vietnam, causing delays in rubber cutting and the market reluctance to sell. Subsequently, the Domestic Democratic League of Thailand experienced unrest, which supported the rebound in rubber prices in the short term. However, these factors have not fundamentally changed the supply side. It is expected that new rubber will continue to be listed in large numbers from mid September. Domestically, the rainy weather in August did not have a great impact on rubber tapping in Yunnan and Hainan, but rubber farmers were reluctant to sell, and the spot trend was strong. At the same time, with the continuous decline of the imported rubber price, the trading volume of the spot market did not rise significantly, but traders continued to be bearish in the future. Therefore, from the perspective of light trading, the future market of the rubber price is not optimistic
the growth of tire manufacturing and automobile industry slowed down
in the first half of this year, the growth of China's tire manufacturing and automobile industry slowed down due to the ice and snow disaster in the south, the earthquake in Wenchuan and the floods in several southern provinces, as well as the rise in steel prices, rising oil prices, high CPI and other adverse factors. According to the latest statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, in the first half of this year, China's automobile production and sales were 5.1996 million and 5.1822 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 16.71% and 18.52%, which fell back compared with the growth rate of more than 22% in the same period of last year. At the same time, the data of the automobile industry in the United States and Japan are not optimistic. Therefore, from the perspective of demand, although it is too early for the tire and automobile industry to develop to the inflection point, it is an indisputable fact that the growth rate has decreased, which is crucial to the later trend of rubber price
the price of synthetic rubber fell sharply under the international oil price
since the international oil price fell close to $148/barrel, its callback range was nearly 30% in just over two months, which had a great impact on the rubber price. For a long time, the price of Tianjiao futures has been greatly affected by the rise and fall of international oil prices. This is not only because crude oil is the king of commodities, but also because the stability of the quality of all bulk commodities is a very important part of the overall cost; Brand vs. testing instrument brand is, to a certain extent, a wind vane reflecting the market ownership and production of products, regardless of whether the machine is often used or not. It is also because the raw materials of synthetic rubber, a substitute for natural rubber, are mainly from crude oil. Affected by the decline of international oil prices, the current price of synthetic rubber in the international market continues to fall, while the quotation of styrene butadiene rubber, the main domestic consumer variety of synthetic rubber, has also fallen sharply one after another, and market selling has emerged rapidly, showing a continuous downward trend. In addition, after the price of synthetic rubber fell, market transactions still did not improve, and traders generally had a bearish mentality. It is understood that as of September 5, the quotation of styrene butadiene rubber rosin type in Shanghai market was about 22150 yuan, down more than 4000 yuan from the previous high of 26500 yuan/ton. It is worth mentioning that after the price of synthetic rubber fell, the difference between the spot price of natural rubber and that of natural rubber has widened to more than 4000 yuan/ton, which puts pressure on the price of natural rubber. Therefore, it is expected that the spot price of natural rubber will follow the price of synthetic rubber in mid September and after
the position of Shanghai Jiao tends to decrease, and the market transaction is slightly light.
for Tianjiao, the trading variety, the most active main contract position is 100000-150000 hands, and the trading volume is 550000-700000 hands as soon as it enters 2013. At present, the position of the main 811 contract of Shanghai Jiao is about 70000 hands, and the trading volume is 300000-500000 hands most of the time. Judging from the recent position structure, the capital side does not have the conditions to support the rubber price to go out of the big market
to sum up, the author believes that the future market of Shanghai Jiaotong will still be in an oscillating market, and the trend is weak
note: the purpose of this report is to point out the R & D expenditure and commercial investment. The reprinted content of this book is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content